Deal Intelligence Engine

Know Every Number
Before You Sign

Five valuation methods. Eight benchmark sources. 18,000+ real transaction comparables. Adversarial-tested analysis. One command.

5
Valuation Methods
8
Benchmark Sources
18K+
Transaction Comps
94
Industry Sectors
The Platform

Rob 2.0 Deal Intelligence

Rob 2.0 is the AI engine built by ROI Logistics. The Deal Intelligence module runs a full acquisition analysis — financials, valuation, benchmarks, deal structure, and adversarial review — from a single command.

Send one email or Slack message with the target's financials. Rob 2.0 returns a comprehensive deal package that would take a traditional advisory team days to assemble.

Every analysis is stress-tested through a three-pass adversarial pipeline before you see it. No confirmation bias. No optimistic assumptions. Just numbers that hold up under scrutiny.

What You Get

  • SDE and EBITDA calculation with margin analysis
  • Five independent valuation methods with ranges
  • Industry-matched benchmarks from 8 sources
  • NPV-based deal structure modeling
  • Adversarial BUY / NEGOTIATE / PASS verdict
  • Post-acquisition marketing growth assessment
CHAPTER 01

The Valuation Engine

Five methods. Size-weighted benchmark blending. Every number sourced, every assumption challenged.

Valuation Methods

Five Ways to Find Fair Value

METHOD 1

SDE Multiple

Seller's Discretionary Earnings times industry median from BizBuySell. The gold standard for Main Street deals.

METHOD 2

Transaction Comps

Real multiples from 18,000+ actual small business sales via BIZCOMPS. Ground truth from closed deals.

METHOD 3

EBITDA Multiple

Size-weighted blend of Damodaran, Pepperdine, and ValuAdder. Public company data de-weighted for small deals.

METHOD 4

Revenue Multiple

Damodaran EV/Sales for sector comparison. Auto-flagged with caution for deals under $5M EBITDA.

METHOD 5

Excess Earnings

Capitalized excess returns above normal asset return. Uses industry WACC plus private company risk premium.

For deals under $5M EBITDA, Damodaran public-company multiples are automatically de-weighted. SDE Multiple and Transaction Comps become the primary reference — because those reflect what real buyers actually pay for real small businesses.
Data Sources

Eight Benchmark Sources

Every valuation is triangulated against multiple independent data sources. No single source drives the analysis.

SourceCoverageData TypeBest For
Damodaran EV/EBITDA 94 sectors, 5,994 firms Public company multiples Upper middle market reference
Damodaran Revenue 94 sectors EV/Sales multiples Revenue-based comparisons
Damodaran WACC 94 sectors Cost of capital by industry Excess earnings, discount rates
BizBuySell 16 industries SDE multiples from listings Main Street SDE valuation
BIZCOMPS 18,000+ closed sales Real transaction comps Ground truth for $100K-$3M deals
Pepperdine 9 industries by size tier EBITDA multiples + capital access Size-adjusted EBITDA valuation
ValuAdder 14 specific business types EBITDA multiples by SIC Granular niche matching
IBBA Market Pulse 5 deal size segments Sentiment, timing, deal terms Market conditions + buyer profiles
Smart Weighting

Size-Weighted Benchmark Blending

Not all data sources are equally relevant at every deal size. Rob 2.0 automatically adjusts source weights based on the target's EBITDA — so a $300K deal is not valued against Fortune 500 data.

EBITDA TierDamodaranBizBuySellBIZCOMPSPepperdineValuAdder
Under $1M 10%30%30%15%15%
$1M - $5M 15%25%25%20%15%
$5M - $25M 25%15%15%30%15%
$25M+ 35%10%10%25%20%

For deals under $5M EBITDA, BIZCOMPS transaction comps and BizBuySell SDE multiples carry 60% of the weight — because those reflect what real buyers actually pay in closed Main Street transactions.

Sample Output

What an Analysis Looks Like

Acme HVAC Services

NEGOTIATE
Revenue$1,000,000
SDE$285,000
EBITDA$220,000
SDE Margin28.5%
Asking Price$850,000
Median Valuation$750,000
Fair Value Range$650K - $780K
Premium Over Fair Value+13.3%
Confidence68 / 100
VerdictNEGOTIATE

Strengths Identified

  • 28.5% SDE margin above service industry average
  • 1,450 BIZCOMPS transaction comps confirm the sector
  • IBBA rates Construction/Trades demand "Very High"

Risks Flagged

  • Asking price 13% above median fair value
  • Owner replaceability not confirmed at market rate
  • Customer concentration data not provided
CHAPTER 02

Deal Structure Intelligence

Headline price is not the real price. Rob 2.0 models the buyer's true economic cost using NPV analysis of every payment component.

NPV Modeling

The Real Cost of Every Deal

A $1M asking price is rarely a $1M deal. Rob 2.0 models cash at closing, seller notes, SBA loans, and earnouts — then discounts every future payment to present value at the buyer's required rate of return.

Cash 35%Seller Note 35%SBA Loan 20%Earnout 10%
35%
35%
20%
10%

Deal Structure — $850K Purchase

15% DISCOUNT
Cash at Closing$297,500
Seller Note (6%, 5yr)$297,500 → NPV $251,000
SBA 7(a) Loan (10.5%, 10yr)$170,000 → NPV $164,000
Earnout (70% probability)$85,000 → NPV $49,000
Effective Cost to Buyer $712,000
Monthly Debt Service$8,970
Total Cash Outflow Over Life$978,000

What This Means

At a 15% discount rate, the buyer's effective cost is $712,000 — not the $850,000 headline. That is a 16.2% effective discount from the time value of deferred payments.

Market Deal Terms (BIZCOMPS)

  • 72% of deals include seller financing
  • 92% asking-to-sale price ratio
  • 210 days average time on market
  • 6.5% average seller note rate
Side-by-Side

Compare Multiple Targets

Evaluating more than one opportunity? Rob 2.0 runs the full valuation engine on each target independently, then ranks them by opportunity quality with an LLM-powered comparative analysis.

TARGET A

HVAC Company

$750K

Median valuation from 5 methods. SDE margin 28.5%. Strong sector demand.

TARGET B

Plumbing Services

$620K

Lower margin but more recurring revenue. Owner less involved in daily ops.

TARGET C

Cleaning Business

$340K

Highest margin of the group. Residential and commercial mix. 80% seller-financed.

Each target gets independent SDE, EBITDA, ratios, all 5 valuation methods, and benchmark matching.
Then a single comparative ranking: valuation attractiveness, risk level, growth potential, and a clear recommendation.

CHAPTER 03

Adversarial Analysis

Every deal analysis is stress-tested through three independent passes. The Builder makes the case. The Critic tears it apart. The Synthesis delivers the verdict.

Three-Pass Review

No Deal Goes Unchallenged

1

The Builder

Senior M&A Advisor. Analyzes financial health, revenue quality, margin trends, SDE/EBITDA integrity. Assesses valuation against benchmarks. Recommends deal structure. Identifies growth opportunities.

2

The Critic

Skeptical Due Diligence Analyst. Challenges multiples appropriateness. Hunts for customer concentration risk. Tests owner replaceability assumptions. Flags hidden liabilities and macro headwinds.

3

The Synthesis

Managing Partner. Issues the final verdict: BUY, NEGOTIATE, or PASS. Sets fair value range. Lists top 3 strengths with evidence. Top 3 risks with mitigation. Specific deal structure terms. Conditions for closing.

The adversarial engine exists for one reason: to make sure you never overpay because the analysis told you what you wanted to hear. If the deal is good, it survives all three passes. If it is not, the Critic catches it before your checkbook does.
Market Context

Real-Time Market Intelligence

Every deal analysis includes current market conditions from the IBBA Market Pulse Survey — so you know whether you are buying in a seller's market or a buyer's market.

72
Market Confidence Index
+3%
YoY Volume Change
62%
Deals with Seller Financing
185d
Median Days to Close

Buyer Profile Breakdown

Buyer TypeMarket ShareTrend
First-Time Buyers42%Stable
Serial Entrepreneurs28%Growing
Strategic Acquirers18%Stable
PE-Backed12%Growing
CHAPTER 04

Post-Acquisition Growth

The deal closes. Now what? Rob 2.0's marketing intelligence engine turns acquisition targets into growth stories from day one.

Growth Confidence

Marketing Intelligence
Powers the Growth Thesis

The deal analysis tells you what a business is worth today. The marketing analysis tells you what it can become. Rob 2.0 runs both — giving you a complete picture of acquisition value and growth potential.

Pre-Acquisition Due Diligence

Digital Footprint Audit

Full website technical audit, social media presence scoring, backlink authority, SEO foundation, and online reputation — revealing exactly where the marketing gaps are before you close.

Market Opportunity Score

Composite 0-100 score quantifying untapped marketing potential. Identifies specific channels and tactics where investment will yield the fastest returns.

Customer Data Intelligence

Ingest the target's customer list. Clean, enrich, and segment it. Know who the most valuable customers are and how to reach more of them before the ink is dry.

Post-Acquisition Operations

Day-One Monitoring

Daily anomaly detection, weekly channel reports, monthly staleness checks, and quarterly strategic reviews — running automatically from the moment you take ownership.

Cross-Portfolio Patterns

What is working in your other portfolio companies? Rob 2.0 identifies transferable playbooks, benchmarks performance across your holdings, and recommends proven tactics for each new acquisition.

Content and Creative at Scale

New brand briefs, ad creatives, landing pages, email campaigns, and social content — all generated from a frozen brand brief. Enterprise-level marketing output without enterprise-level headcount.

Opportunity Detection

Finding Weaknesses.
Showing Opportunities.

Website Scoring 32/100

PageSpeed audit reveals 4.2s load time, no mobile optimization, missing schema markup. Fixing these alone could lift organic traffic 30-50% in 90 days.

Zero Paid Advertising

SemRush shows no active Google or Meta campaigns. Competitors in the same market are spending $3,200/month on keywords with proven conversion rates.

No Review Strategy

Google Places shows 12 reviews at 3.8 stars while the top competitor has 147 reviews at 4.6. Automated review solicitation could close this gap in 6 months.

Strong Local SEO

Despite weak website, organic local rankings are top 3 for primary service keywords. This means the business has real authority that paid channels can amplify.

Untapped Email List

Customer data shows 2,400 contacts with valid emails. Zero email campaigns in the last 12 months. A basic nurture sequence could reactivate 8-12% of dormant customers.

Social Presence Gap

No Instagram or LinkedIn. For a service business in a metro area, social presence alone could generate 15-20 inbound leads per month within 90 days of consistent posting.

These are examples of the specific, actionable findings Rob 2.0 delivers in every business audit. Not vague recommendations — concrete metrics, competitive benchmarks, and estimated impact.

Industry Coverage

Transaction Data by Industry

BIZCOMPS transaction comp data from 18,000+ actual closed deals. Real multiples. Real deal terms. Real buyer behavior.

IndustryTransactionsSDE MultipleRange% Seller Financed
Service Businesses4,5002.45x1.5 - 3.5x75%
Restaurant / Food3,2002.05x1.2 - 2.8x55%
Retail2,1002.15x1.3 - 3.0x60%
Construction / HVAC1,4502.35x1.6 - 3.2x68%
Manufacturing1,2002.85x1.8 - 4.0x70%
Healthcare / Medical1,1002.70x1.8 - 3.8x78%
Auto Repair / Body9002.30x1.5 - 3.0x70%
Wholesale / Distribution8502.60x1.7 - 3.5x65%
Professional Services8002.90x2.0 - 4.5x82%
Gas Station / C-Store7002.50x1.8 - 3.5x50%
Cleaning / Janitorial6502.20x1.4 - 3.0x80%
Landscaping / Lawn5502.40x1.5 - 3.2x72%

Know Every Number.
Challenge Every Assumption.

Five valuation methods. Eight benchmark sources. 18,000+ real comparables.
Adversarial-tested. One command.

5
Valuation Methods
8
Benchmark Sources
3
Adversarial Passes
1
Command

ROI Logistics does not guess at value. We prove it.

roilogistics.ai